US power markets are set to experience significant transitions, driven by renewable energy additions and ongoing capacity challenges as they work to meet growing demand. The PJM Interconnection market will continue to see an abundance of intermittent resources added to its grid in 2025 but will lose about 3 GW of fossil fuel resources. Developers are scheduled to add about 7 GW of capacity across PJM’s mid-Atlantic footprint in 2025, including more than 6 GW of solar, according to an analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

Despite these additions, PJM faces issues with maintaining resource adequacy due to a backlog in its interconnection queue and rising demand from datacenters and other energy-intensive industries. This intense demand and an electrification push are expected to dramatically shift the long-term generation picture.

The Midcontinent ISO (MISO) region is forecast to have significantly more generating capacity added than retired in 2025. The scheduled net addition of 9,049 MW in 2025 includes 11,321 MW of new capacity offset by 2,272 MW of retirements. However, MISO also faces concerns about resource adequacy, particularly as load forecasts continue to grow. MISO updated its load forecasts in December 2024 to reflect new drivers of growth such as datacenters, industrial and transportation, as well as growing uncertainty regarding the magnitude and timing of growth as the grid operator faces tightening reserve margins and a shifting resource mix.

The Southwest Power Pool (SPP) region is poised to add record amounts of solar, energy storage and natural gas-fired capacity this year as the 14-state grid operator braces for a potential 75% increase in peak electricity demand by 2035. The SPP system is scheduled to add 5,550 MW of net generating capacity in 2025, although actual additions are expected to be lower at year-end, given historical project completion rates.

SPP’s most recent long-term demand forecast anticipates the region’s peak load to grow from 56 GW in 2024 to 97 GW by 2035. Datacenter demand, the electrification of heating and transportation, and a resurgence in US manufacturing are driving the growth projections, SPP President and CEO Lanny Nickell said.

In Texas, high temperatures and strong natural gas pricing could cause prices in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power market to return to triple-digit levels in August 2025, compared with August 2024 averages. A tight summer power market seems likely, as solar and wind fleets are expected to produce only a fraction of their nameplate capacity during the highest net peak periods.

However, surging renewable capacity might tame prices throughout the rest of 2025, judging by current forward indexes. ERCOT is likely to add 26.8 GW of capacity in 2025, including 12.3 GW of solar and 11.8 GW of energy storage, according to an analysis of Market Intelligence data. That would be a significant increase over the 14.5 GW added to the Texas power market in 2024.

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Italy’s Mediobanca to outperform peers in shareholder returns for 2025

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—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.